Writer: MD Pathik Hasan
Bangladesh
South Asian Region is a place of one of the world’s oldest civilizations and also, currently, one of the most vibrant and important centers of global culture, from an economic, political, and social point of view that’s why the world superpower always shows their key interest in this region. Britain to the US including the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. There is a long history.
After the Nine Eleven incident, the USA declared war on terror. It invaded Afghanistan with its allies and NATO forces to oust all terrorist outfits from Afghan in 2001. But US suddenly decided to withdraw it’s forces from Afghanistan. So, Doha Agreement was signed between US and the Taliban to bring peace in the country. But In 2021, the United States forces and allies started to withdraw from Afghanistan which allowed the Taliban to intensify their insurgency.
After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Afghan crisis is going on. No one knows what is future of Afghanistan. The people of Afghanistan become scapegoats for the ongoing crisis between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Many Afghans became refugees during the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan, civil war in Afghanistan in1990s, US declaration war on terror in Afghanistan in 2001, and War between Taliban and Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021. Now Afghan people is facing the internal civil war alike crisis. With more and more Afghan civilians are attempting to cross borders into neighboring countries to escape the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Afghan refugees reside in about 70 countries around the world, with the majority being hosted by Iran and Pakistan.
According to UNHCR report published on July 13, 2021, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is warning of a looming humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan as the escalating conflict brings increased human suffering and civilian displacement. An estimated 270,000 Afghans have been newly displaced inside the country since January 2021 – primarily due to insecurity and violence – bringing the total uprooted population to over 3.5 million.
Migrants from Afghanistan are making arduous journeys through Iran to reach Turkey, which already hosts millions of Syrian refugees. But Turkey has already started to fence it’s border points with Iran to stop the mass exodus of Afghan refugees and refused the US proposal to take the associated Afghan citizens with US during it’s staying in Afghanistan.
Afghan refugees may enter into Europe using the Iran-Turkey route and Arabian country-North African states-Mediterranean sea route. Now the question is what will the stance of Europe regarding the refugees flow? Europe see the Syrian, Libyan refugees flow. Many populist leaders oppose migration directly. Europe will never take the burden of Afghan refugees. Then may provide humanitarian financial assistance.
In recent comments, the Austrian Chancellor says it’s better for Afghan refugees to go to Turkey than to come to Europe. There are already between 3.5 – 4 million refugees in Turkey. In addition, Turkey has other problems. If refugees comes to Turkey, everything breaks down, the ethnic structure of Turkey.
The security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating and some fear it could lead to a civil war. In the 1990s, a similar conflict forced millions of Afghans to flee into neighboring countries including Pakistan, which has hosted some three million Afghan refugees for decades.
National Security Adviser of Pakistan DrMoeed Yusuf has said that Pakistan cannot bear the burden of hosting more Afghan refugees.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Shah Mahmood Qureshi on July 10 had said that Pakistan had played host to more than three million Afghan refugees over the years and did not have the capa July 10 had said that Pakistan had played host to more than three million Afghan refugees over the years and did not have the capacity to bear the burden of additional refugees.
It is very true that Pakistan is the most sufferer as an immediate neighbor of Afghanistan. Pakistan gave the shelters from the beginning of the Afghan crisis during the Soviet invasion in 1979 in Afghanistan. Pakistan always paid the burden. Now another refugee flows is waiting for the regional countries. Pakistan is facing many challenges for this Afghan crisis. Security concerns, refugees’ exodus, the spread of terrorism are the issues for Pakistan.
Policymakers of Pakistan think that Hostile parts of Pakistan can damage Pakistan’s interest regionally utilizing this Afghan crisis. Pakistan saw the Serena Hotel incident, Dasu hydropower bus incident, gun attack on Chinese, bomb explosion in Punjab the incidents, abduction of the daughter of Afghan envoy. If the Afghan Refugee influx towards Pakistan happens, then Pakistan will face another security crisis.
Pakistan has economic inflation. Keeping Pakistan’s name in the FATF grey list, CPEC, societal aspects of Pakistani people are some issues for Pakistan. So it is clear that Pakistan would not give any shelter to Afghan refugees.
As of October 2020, there are 780,000 registered Afghan refugees and asylum seekers residing in Iran under the care and protection of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Iran is not also interested to take more refugees. Iran is also facing security challenges for the upcoming security exodus. If any exodus happens, then Iran will push them to Turkey. However, Iran has no alternative.
Afghan exodus towards Central Asia due to Russia and China factors. China will never allow this. On other hand, Middle Eastern and India will also take over the displaced Afghan Migrants.
UNHCR can not play the role as a single non-state actor. How many days will UNHCR beer cost. Will Canada able to give the status all Afghan refugees. Regional states will sufferer.
The international community should do something regarding the Syrian refugee crisis, the Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh who was displaced by their own government from Myanmar in 2917, upcoming Afghan crisis. Refugees crisis can turn into an international crisis. So world leaders have to play in this regard.
So now the question is who will give them shelter? Who will bear the burden? World is going to see another Syrian crisis. But world leaders should understand the reality. Afghan government, Taliban and every stakeholders in the Peace process has to be committed to stopping this crisis tackling another Syrian crisis
