A new report by the Energy Transitions Commission has called for an accelerated transition towards renewable energy following disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, warning that reliance on fossil fuels continues to expose economies to major risks.
According to the commission, recent instability in global energy markets has revealed the structural weaknesses of fossil fuel-based systems. These systems depend heavily on uninterrupted supply chains passing through critical chokepoints, making them highly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and sudden disruptions.
The report emphasised that fossil fuel supply disruptions are quickly reflected in global price spikes, impacting economies worldwide. In contrast, renewable energy systems offer greater resilience due to their distributed nature and lower dependence on continuous fuel imports.
The commission noted that while clean energy requires significant upfront investment, around 70–90 per cent of its cost is capital-based rather than ongoing fuel expenses. This structural difference provides long-term stability and protection from price volatility.
One of the key highlights of the report was Pakistan’s rapid growth in rooftop solar adoption. According to the findings, the expansion of solar energy systems in the country has already helped cushion the impact of global energy shocks triggered by the Hormuz disruption.
Experts estimate that Pakistan’s shift toward solar energy has contributed to billions of dollars in avoided fuel import costs since 2020. This trend reflects a growing shift in energy consumption patterns and highlights the potential of renewable energy to strengthen economic resilience.
The report also warned that continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure could lock countries into long-term vulnerability. It stressed that expanding oil and gas dependence would increase exposure to future disruptions, especially in sensitive regions like the Strait of Hormuz.
Additionally, the commission projected that technologies such as electric vehicles, solar power, and energy-efficient systems could significantly reduce global oil demand over the next decade. Electric vehicle adoption alone could displace millions of barrels of oil per day by the early 2030s.
The report highlighted that global spending on oil and gas could rise by $1–2 trillion annually due to price shocks, without increasing actual energy supply. In comparison, investing in renewable energy could provide long-term economic stability while reducing emissions.
Co-chair Adair Turner stated that fossil fuel dependence is not only an environmental concern but also a major economic and strategic vulnerability. He emphasised that the current crisis should serve as a wake-up call for governments to accelerate clean energy adoption.
The commission also cited analysis from energy think tank Ember, which found that renewable technologies have reached a level of scale and affordability sufficient to stabilise energy systems during global disruptions.
Looking ahead, global renewable capacity is expected to nearly double by 2030, with solar photovoltaic systems leading the expansion. This growth is likely to play a central role in reducing dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets.
The report concluded by urging governments to avoid long-term fossil fuel commitments and instead focus on renewable expansion, energy efficiency, and electrification. It also recommended targeted support for low-income populations affected by energy price increases.
Overall, the findings highlight that transitioning to renewable energy is no longer just an environmental priority but a strategic necessity for ensuring energy security in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
